Environmental externalities

These types of effects are broadly referred to as environmental externalities: side effects or consequences of commercial activity that are not reflected in the price of the goods or services provided. Environmental externalities can be quantified in monetary terms (€/year) by a simple formula: the environmental offense (for example, types of air pollutants released into the atmosphere that lead to environmental stress) multiplied by the value of environmental damage per offense (the cost for each type of pollutant). The cost used for each type of pollutant was based on European studies correlated for Israel.

Since we are gazing into the future, this analysis requires us to take into account the different paths that the Israeli electricity generation sector could take. The study examined six scenarios: (1) 100% generation by gas turbines; (2) 95% by gas turbines, 5% by coal; (3) 90% by gas, 10% by coal; (4) 50% by gas, 50% by coal (worst case scenario); (5) 45% by gas, 45% by coal, 10% by renewable energy; and (6) 100% renewable energy.

The graph below shows the monetary value of environmental gains/benefits of EV adoption based on the current CO2 price of €14.8/ton and a projected price of €50/ton for the year 2020. Even in the worst-case scenario (scenario 4), switching to EVs shows a clear benefit. In the best case scenario, using 100% renewable energy, the values exceed €250 million/year.

Air quality in city centers

Research published by Dr. Flicstein also showed that the contribution of vehicular emissions to air pollution is higher than its relative part in overall pollution sources, such as industrial, natural etc. (4). On Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement observed nationally), virtually the whole country ceases from driving for 24 hours. As a result, vehicular emissions such as Benzene (measured in Haifa) drop almost to zero. The research predicts that switching gasoline cars to EVs will decrease the level of traffic pollutants to “Yom Kippur” levels.

Impact of smart charging on power plant emissions

The research assessed what would happen to power plant emissions assuming broad adoption of EVs coupled with smart charging systems, focusing on the five natural gas electricity plants in Israel. Based on the environmental models used to project the emissions from the power plants, it was determined that in all stations, with the exception of Haifa, the additional energy demand would have no significant impact on air quality, allowing the stations to continue to meet both local and European limits.

The Haifa power plant is a special case, since there are many sources of emissions in the area in addition to topographical and meteorological issues that prevent pollutants from dispersing. For these reasons, the Environmental Protection Ministry has recommended to avoid increasing the load of this power plant. And herein lies the opportunity to scale up renewable energy generation in the Haifa area.

Therefore, perhaps surprising to some, the switch to EVs will actually lead to significant and measurable environmental benefits in terms of air quality, regardless of the mix of sources of electricity. It is also noteworthy that as a sophisticated and flexible large-scale consumer of electricity, Better Place can become an enabler of large-scale integration of renewable energy, both in Israel and globally.

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(1) Dr. Bernanda Flicstein, 2009, “The Impact of 2,000,000 Electric Vehicles on Air Quality in Israel in the Year 2020″

(2) Holdren, John P. 1981 “Chapter V. Energy and Human Environment: The Generation and Definition of Environmental Problems.” In The European Transition from Oil: Societal Impacts and Constraints on Energy Policy. Edited by G. T. Goodman, L. A. Kristoferson and J. M. Hollander. London: Academic Press.

(3) Green taxation by the Israeli inter-ministerial committee (Hebrew)

(4) Yuval, et al., “The impact of a forced reduction in traffic volumes on urban air pollution”, Atmospheric Environment (2007), doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.09.066

As we at Better Place gear up for broad deployment of electric vehicle (EV) battery charging and battery switch infrastructure in our initial markets of Israel and Denmark, I have the vantage point of seeing his claims come true. We are creating real “green collar” or “cleantech” jobs as 280 Better Place employees and 500+ electrical, civil, mechanical and industrial planners, engineers and contractors go to work. These infrastructure jobs are local and not easily outsourced. The best part – deployment contractors do not require any special training to get going. These projects are truly “shovel ready.”

Governments in other countries like France and China are taking advantage of the job creation potential of infrastructure projects required in the electrification of transportation. For example, France is investing €1.5 billion in deploying charging stations nationwide. In China, which recently overtook the United States as the largest market for automobiles, it is a national priority to electrify its transportation fleet with a “NEV” (New Energy Vehicles) sales target of 5% of total vehicle sales and 20% of total passenger car sales by 2015, and to create 1 billion Amp hours of battery manufacturing capacity by 2011.

New York Times Op-Ed columnist Thomas Friedman has written extensively on the anticipated growth of cleantech jobs and how parents should encourage their children to develop skills that position them for success in the Green Collar Economy. Now, almost every other week there is a student delegation from the top business, engineering and policy schools in the world visiting our HQ in Palo Alto. There is a very clear shift: cleantech jobs are the new banking and consulting jobs for the graduating class. We have already seen signs of an exodus from the broader technology sector to the cleantech sector (in fact, most of our management team and staff are living evidence of this shift). As interest in this field continues to grow, we will all benefit from formation of new cleantech startups benefitting from this rich supply of eager talent.

The San Francisco Bay Area has always provided early insights into mega trends like telecom and the Internet. Now, the cleantech mega trend is taking shape in front of our eyes: for example, the NUMMI plant in Fremont, California, which has been manufacturing internal combustion vehicles since 1962, is shutting down. Just 3 miles south of NUMMI, Solyndra is commissioning a new solar cell manufacturing plant capable of producing 500MW of panels annually. Construction of this complex will employ approximately 3,000 people, and operation of the facility will create over 1,000 jobs. Our neighborhood has evolved relatively quickly into ground zero for cleantech jobs, including manufacturing, design and R&D for everything from stationary fuel cells to solar panels to EV networks.

An estimate provided by the Electrification Coalition predicts that development of the automotive cleantech industry in the U.S. could produce a total of 1.9 million new jobs by 2030, mostly in the manufacturing sector. The creation of jobs would be immediate: they predict 227,000 in 2010, 700,000 in 2015 and almost 900,000 in 2020. Most importantly, these new jobs would be a permanent part of a continuously developing industry.

We at Better Place have the privilege of having a front row seat while shaping the next platform for cleantech job growth in markets like Israel and Denmark. The ability of companies and governments to create derivative products and wealth on this platform will be staggering. Governments have an amazing opportunity to leverage cleantech innovation to reshape their economies, their transportation infrastructure and most importantly their contribution to mitigating the risk of global climate change.

Now, with nearly every major automaker committing to produce EVs in the next several years, we see the industry proposing various solutions to overcome the range problem: designing the car around a large battery giving 200+ miles of range and costing $25,000 or more, claims of 5 minute “fast charge,” relying on “quick charge” stations taking at least 30 minutes to charge (at 2C charge rates), or battery switch to extend EV range instantly (under 5 minutes).

With the premise of trying to get into mass-market, widespread adoption, high price points of colossal batteries (even with government incentives) will be a nonstarter to consumers. 5 minute fast charge is not even feasible: aside from reducing the battery life quickly with high heat evolution, it will have an adverse impact on the grid if it were mass deployed (e.g., charging a 25 kWh battery in 5 minutes would require over 300 kW power; to put this in perspective, two cars fast charging at the same time would be equal to the power feed of an average office building).

Ruling out large batteries and fast charge, this post will look at quick charge vs. battery swap from several perspectives: cost, flexibility, and technology.

Cost

Although the price of EV batteries is dropping, industry-published reports quote battery prices in the range of $500-$600/kWh at high volume production (or $12,500 – $15,000 for a 25 kWh battery pack that would propel a standard sedan EV about 100 miles per charge). EV batteries will inevitably degrade, but specific treatment of EV batteries can affect how slow or fast they degrade. One key consideration is temperature: extreme charge/discharge conditions result in batteries heating up and increasing the rate of degradation. Depending on battery chemistry, frequent use of quick charge could reduce the lifespan of a battery substantially. And who ultimately bears the cost of battery degradation? The EV owner.

As opposed to a fixed battery in a car, batteries that are exchanged at Better Place switch stations are charged in a well-managed and temperature-controlled environment, ensuring optimal conditions that prolong their life. After all, in the Better Place model, our company owns the batteries and has a strong incentive to optimize the quality and lifespan of all batteries in our network.

Flexibility

My benchmark for convenience is the amount of time it takes to refuel a car: about 5 minutes. While a 5 minute “fast charge” is not feasible for reasons mentioned above, the industry talks about the term “quick charge” as a connection that refills a battery to 80% capacity in 30 minutes. Taking six times as long as refueling with gas, the term “quick charge” quickly loses its luster. To be clear, there is a time and place for quick charge, but that cannot be the broadly adopted solution for convenient range extension.

By contrast, battery switch delivers an “instant charge” – a 100% fully charged battery in less time than it takes to fill up a gas tank. I imagine a scenario in which an EV driver is plugged into a quick charge station for half an hour while watching five or six people achieve instant charge at a battery switch station across the street. Quick? Not quite.

Technology

With today’s technology, batteries have limited range; the industry talks about batteries with about 100 miles of range with reasonable size/weight dimensions (i.e., 200-300 kg). I often get asked the question about a “magic battery” that could serve as an EV game changer – perhaps one with highly improved energy density that could be fully recharged in several minutes with no effect on degradation rates. There are indeed several disruptive technologies in the pipeline, but they are a long way off. When they do arrive, Better Place will be the first to look at how to integrate them into operations to give subscribers access to the most advanced battery technology.

With the gradual expected increase in energy capacity of lithium ion batteries over the next few years, “quick charge” will gradually become ”slow charge” for increasingly advanced packs (e.g., those with higher energy density), while battery switch technology will continue to improve in speed. Relative to a 100-mile pack, a 300-mile pack will take three times as long to charge, or about 1.5 hours at the “quick charge” rates. In contrast, battery switch will be measured in seconds.

With a fixed-battery EV, you also likely pay upfront for the cost of an expensive battery that will inevitably degrade and adversely affect the residual value of the vehicle, and your best option for extending range on a long-distance trip is waiting for 30 minutes every 80 miles.

The concept of battery switch addresses each of these problems. Battery switch stations deliver instant range extension on long-distance trips, and new battery technologies can be integrated into EVs with switchable batteries. Since drivers don’t have to own the batteries, they don’t worry about high upfront cost, degradation or residual value.

Overcoming the range problem is a nontrivial endeavor, but with unprecedented collaboration across the automotive, battery, software and information technology industries, the answer is elusive no more.

As was highlighted in the recent book “Startup Nation,” by Dan Senor and Saul Singer, Israeli innovation coupled with American marketing has created many a global sensation, from instant messaging to the disk on key. However, by applying this combination to finding a solution for oil dependence, the two nations have the opportunity not just to improve each of their economies, but also to strengthen global security and reduce carbon emissions.

The visit by these two American dignitaries signals an even deeper partnership between the two countries in solving one of mankind’s most pressing problems.

Many factors contributed to the shift in utility perspectives toward EVs, but the turning point arguably would be the announcement of billions of dollars of federal stimulus funding to support alternative fuel vehicle programs in the U.S. and elsewhere. This has propelled auto manufacturers to announce planned production of at least 60 xEV (EV, PHEV, HEV) passenger and light duty plug-in vehicles by 2010, and at least 119 models of xEV passenger vehicles by 2015 (1). What does the arrival of all of these EVs mean for utilities?

Location, location, location

Consumer adoption of EVs, especially over the next couple of years, is expected to occur in localized concentrations where the combination of demographics, consumer attitudes and familiarity with hybrid vehicles favor their early adoption. Thinking of adoption of hybrids, it is not too hard to see where the first waves of EVs are likely to land. Such concentrations of EVs pose potential issues for utilities.

Each time a vehicle plugs in, the amount of power required is roughly equivalent to another home suddenly appearing on the distribution system. Depending on the local residential energy profiles, a 3-6KW EV connection can even look like the equivalent of as much as 2-3 homes. Utilities have designed their systems to accommodate such impacts only up to a point before system upgrades and new investments are required. Managed EV charging solutions offer the most attractive way for utilities to ensure EV drivers get the energy they need while minimizing utility impacts – and thus defer, or possibly avoid altogether, the need to invest in system upgrades.

Show me the energy

The U.S. electric utility industry operates an interconnected transmission system that links generation to demand (customers). Utility generation, transmission and distribution systems are designed to meet the highest expected demand, which in most cases occurs for less than a few hundred hours a year (out of a total of 8,760 hours). The rest of the time, up to a third or more of the power plants are idle, ready to respond to part-time duty, or shut down altogether if there is no scheduled requirement.

Based on research conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, this idle capacity in the U.S. grid could supply the equivalent energy needs of over 70% of the cars, trucks and SUVs that are on U.S. roads today – with no new utility system investment required! That’s approximately 175 million electric vehicles that today’s U.S. grid could support. However, achieving this requires the charging of EVs to be managed in a centralized fashion to ensure that charging takes place during “valley” (or “off-peak”) periods.

How green is my (off-peak) valley?

As the number of EVs grows within a region, they transform from being a potential headache for utilities to becoming an important energy asset. Large numbers of EVs create a “distributed storage” resource that can be used to absorb excess energy that routinely occurs in utility systems. Such excess energy, for example, occurs moment to moment as the system operators attempt to match generation supply with demand and keep the system in balance. Perhaps more significant is the “excess energy” associated with renewable energy. Renewable energy is inherently variable and in many places is mostly available at times when energy is least in demand (i.e., off-peak, at night). On the contrary, without energy storage, the ability of electricity systems to absorb increasing amounts of renewable energy is significantly impacted. One recent study indicated that without energy storage, achieving 50% renewable portfolio standards in California would result in over 3,000 GWh of energy “dumped” annually – energy that could otherwise charge the equivalent of 1 million vehicles for a year!

If 2009 was the year that EVs became real to utilities, 2010 promises to be the year that EVs start becoming formally integrated into utilities’ smart grid strategies. We have been actively working with utilities and grid operators around the world by demonstrating how our technical achievements in Israel and Denmark can be brought to other countries as well. It’s exciting to see the enthusiastic response to our intelligently-managed EV charging approach—an approach that can become a key element of utility smart grid strategies everywhere.

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(1) “Electric Vehicles: Plugged-In 2,” 11/3/2009, Deutsche Bank

At the center, you can learn about the benefits of our model and user experience through interactive media, real test drives of electric vehicles (EVs), Q&A sessions with our staff, and more.

Traveling through the center is a truly amazing experience. Take a look at these photos to see what we have in store for you:

Created with Admarket’s flickrSLiDR.

Since Better Place was founded in 2007, our critics and supporters alike have continued to ask many questions about how we plan to operate within the constraints of some of the most entrenched industries in the world to introduce a sustainable, mass-market solution for reducing our dependence on oil.

We designed the demonstration center specifically to bring the answers to the public through an entertaining, informative and meaningful experience that will address myths and provide new insights about sustainable transportation. The demonstration center is built directly inside a giant tank at the Pi Glilot facility (in the city of Ramat Ha’Sharon), which used to serve as Israel’s major fossil fuel distribution hub.

Many have found it difficult to believe that a start-up company could shake up the automotive and energy industries to affect the status quo of transportation. Furthermore, given the 100-year history of false starts for EVs, there has been no shortage of skepticism on whether the EV driving experience could be made as convenient, affordable and enjoyable as the experience of driving an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. However, through the development of an innovative business model and EV solution elements, Better Place has shown that such achievements are not only possible, but also are happening now.

The demonstration center presents to the public the broadest Better Place consumer experience to date. In addition to EV test drives on a dedicated track and the opportunity to engage directly with Better Place staff, we provide a multimedia experience to help visitors understand the opportunity to positively affect our environment, geopolitics, and economies by switching the way we drive. The best part? Knowing that we can achieve these benefits by driving far superior cars: relative to ICE vehicles, EVs are fast, efficient, reliable, silent and clean.

Thanks in advance for spreading information and photos of the demonstration center to your friends and family. We hope that you’ll have an opportunity to visit us, and we look forward to meeting you and bringing you one step closer toward a sustainable transportation future.

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Until Better Place, EVs were burdened by the chicken-and-egg problem: automakers would not produce a mass-market EV because nobody would build the requisite infrastructure to support them, and nobody would invest in the infrastructure since automakers would not produce a mass-market EV. Better Place has sought to break free from this coordination challenge by making a large, up-front investment in EV network infrastructure and supporting services with the agreement from Renault to produce 100,000 EVs that are affordable to buy and amazing to drive.

Our announcement today goes a long way toward validating and enabling this model.

As detailed in our press release, we have just closed our Series B round of financing for USD $350MM. Our investors represent some of the largest financial institutions in the world, employing exceptionally thorough due diligence processes that are commensurate with the size of investment. They looked under every rock in our business model, challenging our assumptions, primary research findings, and market forecasts, and rigorously investigating our software/hardware development.

At the end of the day, these investors demonstrated their confidence in the Better Place model in the clearest possible manner: by committing significant financial resources for an equity stake in our long-term success. Rather than speaking for our investors, I would like to direct you to this video and several articles in the New York Times and Financial Times.

Overall, this additional financial strength will broaden and deepen our global activities. The resources will fund the the next phase of research, development and testing, and will support deployment in early markets and allow for expansion into additional regions.

Since the company was founded over two years ago, Better Place has maintained that the race to mass adoption of EVs would be a marathon, not a sprint. We are continuing at a fast and steady pace, and this major company milestone puts us in an unparalleled position to deliver a sustainable transportation system in our initial target markets and beyond.

From the 380 in-car technology exhibits at CES to “Electric Avenue” in Detroit, plug-in announcements and milestones are coming fast and furiously. One of the most important and encouraging trends is the unprecedented amount of collaboration happening between car companies, software companies and electrical utilities.

Car companies are not traditionally known for cross-industry collaboration and partnership. Historically, car manufacturers were vertically integrated and later started to partner within the industry as specialized suppliers, contract manufacturers and engineering consultancies grew. Today, through partnership and cooperation, public and private entities from several industries are seeing compelling business reasons to come together and knock down barriers to EV adoption with creative solutions to hard problems.

Two primary areas of collaboration are emerging: (1) platforms and software enabling the ‘connected car’ and (2) charging infrastructure.

(1) Platforms and software enabling the ‘connected car’

Plug-in vehicles are on the horizon and providing relevant, real-time information and content to drivers will be a major differentiator on the showroom floor. In internal combustion engine cars, navigation systems and other advanced telematics are a ‘nice to have’ option that some consumers will pay for, but many won’t.

For plug-in cars, pure EVs in particular, understanding where to charge, how to plan trips and managing available range becomes vitally important. For the plug-in hybrids (e.g. Fisker Karma, Chevy Volt, Plug-in Prius), these services will save money on gas and maximize the number of electric miles driven.

At CES, Microsoft announced that 1 million cars running its Windows CE operating system are now on the road. Ford, Fiat and Kia all developed their in-car software systems in partnerships with Microsoft.

Ford’s President and CEO Alan Mulally explained that he “expects to see the entire ecosystem of technology players and partners reach a new level of creativity and simplicity in meeting customer needs for seamless connectivity – whether they are at home, in the office or at play.”

The very fact that Alan Mulally gave the keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show for the second straight year says a lot about how closely these industries are working together.

(2) Charging infrastructure

Today, drivers feel comfortable with the fact that there exists a mature, vast infrastructure of gas stations that can provide energy very quickly for internal combustion engine cars. Building up a convenient network of charging infrastructure that inspires this type of confidence in electric vehicles will take time, money and commitment from a broad array of players.

The displays and announcements in Detroit accentuated that there is a huge amount of complexity and innovation. Because of this, carmakers are finding specialized partners to work with.

The partnerships are clustered around four areas:

1. Development and installation of charge spots for homes
2. Development and installation of public charging infrastructure
3. Creating interfaces to help utilities understand electricity demand to ensure reliable electricity supply
4. Ensuring integration with home energy management

For a company selling low volumes of expensive cars with long driving range to affluent drivers, providing charging is relatively simple – electricians install an electrical box or large outlet in the garage and the owner makes due away from home with the available infrastructure. If the goal is to electrify the majority of cars and light trucks, there is an entirely different set of issues that need to be addressed by a broader ecosystem.

When electric vehicles start to show up in higher volumes later this year, electric utilities will need to be able to deal with the increased demands on the grid. Many people expect that EV purchases will initially be clustered in certain neighborhoods so some areas will experience a pointed increase in electricity demand. Utilities need a way to understand when and where cars are going to charge so it can ensure reliable electricity supply and avoid brownouts/blackouts. Carmakers need a way to ensure reliable charging or few people will buy plug-in cars.

One of the largest benefits claimed by drivers of electric vehicles is that they never have to go to the gas station – they simply plug in their cars at night and wake up to a fully charged car.

Overall, this wave of cross-industry collaboration is creating new pathways to innovation on some of the toughest challenges that have limited the appeal of electric vehicles during the past century. Incumbent players and new entrants working to foster wide-scale deployment of electric vehicles and infrastructure will surely benefit, as will their customers.

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When looking at a big country such as Australia, it appears to make little sense to establish a market of range limited EVs.

However, if you remove the range constraint by providing charge spots and battery swapping, we see the bigger future for EVs lies in big cars. Why? Economics.

The bigger the car, the more gasoline it uses. The further you drive, the more gasoline you use. The more gasoline you use, the more carbon emissions you create and the more oil dependency we suffer. This in turn means that the more gasoline you use, the more money can be saved by going electric.

Despite being a big country, Australia is the most urbanised country in the world outside the small city-states. More than two-thirds of our people live in major cities, and with long distances between them and a competitive airline sector, the majority of inter-city travel is by air.

That said, the annual new car market in Australia is around one million vehicles, and Australians still drive a lot. Most of the driving is done by larger cars in the outer suburbs of our major cities. These drivers are facing $3K, $4K, $5K, even $6K annual gasoline bills – which can be replaced by an EV that uses less than $1K worth of renewable electricity. (1)

The solution to the growing gasoline bills of our long distance drivers will not be small city-car EVs. The best solution for these drivers is large, powerful EVs, together with a charging infrastructure that lets them drive as long as they want, wherever they want, whenever they want.

This is particularly relevant for Australia because we are one of only 15 countries that can produce an automobile from design and engineering through to manufacture. But the Australian car industry makes big, powerful cars, and in the internal combustion world, that is a challenging place to be. In an industry defined by fuel economy, Australia makes some of the larger, thirstier cars around.

So the Australian auto industry is re-thinking its approach. Most recently in the Automotive Australia 2020 Vision Report the industry adopted a new vision – to be one of the world’s leading producers of large, powerful, zero emissions vehicles. This vision resonated for four reasons:

* It’s what our customers want;

* It’s what we know how to build;

* It’s where the money is (both in energy savings and in auto margins);

* Global leadership positions are still open.

With one of the highest levels of in-home garage parking in the world, Australia is a cheap place to install charging infrastructure. With long-driving large vehicles in the outer suburbs, and almost unlimited wind and solar resources, it is an ideal market to displace gasoline with renewable electricity. That’s why Better Place is rolling out charging infrastructure for EVs around Australia starting late 2012.

Australia will be one of the largest early markets for EVs and if automakers can deliver large powerful EVs, there will be a ready market for them here.

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(1) 36,000 km/year / 5 km/kWh * USD $0.14/kWh = approx USD $1000 versus 36,000km / 12L/100km * USD $1.04/L = approx $4,500.

But was it really that bad? A closer look at the text of the Accord reveals something that had never before been articulated at a Conference of the Parties. It effectively interprets for the first time the UNFCCC’s ultimate objective, specifically that preventing “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” means holding the rise in global temperatures to below 2°C [note: the European Union already adopted the 2°C threshold as its official policy target back in 1996]. Further, the Accord embraces the basic principle that emissions targets should be informed by the best available science – currently represented by the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) – not by what is deemed politically feasible.

We need only examine the AR4 to find out what all of this means in practical terms. Avoiding a temperature rise of 2°C compared to the long-term pre-industrial average requires that global greenhouse gas emissions peak and begin to decline within the next decade, before falling to extremely low levels by 2050. According to the AR4, the oft-repeated mantra of “50-85% reduction by 2050” will most likely result in a temperature rise of between 2-2.4°C, which is manifestly not below 2°C. The implication here is that cutting emissions by 85% by 2050 may not be sufficient to achieve the ambition declared by the leaders of the world’s major emitting nations.

But let’s not split hairs: staying below 2°C will most likely require a complete decarbonisation of the energy system by 2050. When Kennedy aimed for the moon, he didn’t set a target to get 85% of the way there. Zero carbon means we can only burn fossil fuels if we capture and store the combustion emissions.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is currently under development and nearing large-scale deployment, possibly in the nick of time for operators of coal- and gas-fired power plants, but unlikely to save that other great emitter: the automotive tailpipe. It’s hard to envisage a scenario in which CCS can be economically deployed to capture vehicular CO2 emissions, certainly not in the next forty years.

Does this mean the Copenhagen Accord spells the end of the automobile within our lifetime? Certainly not! But we do need to embark upon a monumental programme to transform the sector. The most effective way to eliminate tailpipe emissions is to eliminate tailpipes. In our vision for a decarbonised economy, that leaves just two alternatives: carbon-free electricity, or carbon-free hydrogen. And if life-cycle energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness are primary among our considerations, then based on what we know today the energy carriers of 2050 will be electrons rather than hydrogen molecules.

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Dr. Gary Kendall is Executive Director at SustainAbility, a hybrid consultancy and think tank with offices in the US, UK and India. He is also author of Plugged In: The End of the Oil Age.