Ann Bordetsky, North America Market Development

Will the U.S. lead or follow on the path to electrification?

Last week, Better Place delivered an important message to the U.S. Congress: vehicle electrification is inevitable around the world, and the opportunity to lead is here. To get ahead of this global transition and capture its massive economic potential, the U.S. must make electrification a top tier priority in its economic recovery and clean energy agenda.

Around the world, there is a growing tide of governments getting serious about going electric. Two examples are our recent progress in China and Japan. Other examples include France, China and Germany (among others), which have all made public-private partnership commitments to lead in mass-scale production and deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). The shift to electrification in these countries will happen in a disruptive way, and will reshuffle the deck on leadership in cars and energy. Whoever wins may win the century.

The primary motivation for each country may differ – from oil independence, to building globally dominant automotive industries, to integrating large amounts of renewable energy resources into the grid. But the conclusion is the same: electrification enables all of these benefits if it is done at scale; to do it at scale, government must adequately engage.

For the U.S., that means making a national commitment to electrification and the policy to support it on a mass scale. This starts with setting an explicit goal for the U.S. to become the global leader in the EV market, and backing it up with meaningful investment in regional EV ecosystems to enable consumer adoption. If this is done, the U.S. would create 2 million new and permanent jobs by 2030. (1)

While the U.S. is falling behind in the race, it can still turn around and lead this transition. In fact, it must do so to justify the $2B investment that the U.S. has already made in batteries alone through the stimulus package. According to Johnson Controls, if the U.S. doesn’t create a robust domestic market for EVs over the next five years, it will see excess battery manufacturing capacity of 62%.

In a world in which the global car park is forecast to double over the next 20 years, there is no reason the U.S. auto industry should fall behind or downsize. In fact, countries that lead this transition will be positioned for a lion’s share of the benefit.

For example, China has made electrification a national priority, setting an industrial policy to be the world’s #1 producer of EVs, starting with a 13-city demonstration. By using incentives to accelerate the domestic market for EV uptake, China has the potential not only to leapfrog the combustion engine at home, but also to position its automotive industry for global leadership.

If there are any doubts about China’s potential for winning this race, consider what is happening in other cleantech segments: China has grown its global market share in solar from 2% to 40%, while in the same timeframe the U.S. has moved from over 40% down to 16%. And in the last year, China’s investment in clean energy was nearly double that of the U.S., according to the Pew Charitable Trust, totaling $34.6B vs. $18.6B respectively.

So, while the U.S. stimulus package made an initial investment in battery technology and automotive retooling, during the same time much of the rest of the world began to move in a faster and more comprehensive way to lead in vehicle electrification.

We all know why it is imperative that the U.S. addresses its dependence on oil. The only question is – will the U.S. lead this transition or will it lag behind other countries in capitalizing on this opportunity?

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(1) Economic Impact of the Electrification Roadmap, Electrification Coalition

  • Arun Cherian Thomas
    Thoughtful post.

    The US has to move and lead the way if it hopes to remain on top of the transformation. However the realization has to come unanimously from all the concerned quarters.

    http://blogs.america.gov/obama/2010/05/13/president-urges-congress-to-pass-climate-bill/

    In a recent address in Buffalo, Minnesota, the US president seems to have nailed the issue.
    "Because one of the things, obviously, that we have to recognize is, is that no matter what we do, oil prices are going to be going up over the long term. You're not always clear what's going on, but the long-term trend is just because countries like China —they're starting to buy cars and countries like India are starting to buy cars, and so the demand on petroleum and fossil fuels are going to be greater and greater —we've got to get a first-class transit system,” Obama said.
    http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/petroleum-prices-to-rise-as-india-china-buy-more-cars-obama/395030/

    It seems to be high on the priority list, nonetheless the next few steps have to be debated and arrived at by responsible governing bodies and citizens.

    Half hearted, skeptic moves shall do the country and the world no good!

  • xenomuller
    Thanks to CNN I found this website. I will do everything I can to spread the word. Thank you.
    Xeno
  • evaldocosta
    Hi Ann,
    I agree with you. US has a great opportunity to lead this new car generations. But, now many countries are investing in this project. If you want to lead the United States need to work hard and act fast. Why is not the big swallows the small. It is the fastest.

    Congratulations for your post.
  • evaldocosta
    Hi Ann,
    I agree with you. US has a great opportunity to lead this new car generations. But, now many countries are investing in this project. If you want to lead the United States need to work hard and act fast. Why is not the big swallows the small. It is the fastest.

    Congratulations for your post.
  • Great post, Ann! I also enjoyed reading Jason Wolf's recent testimony before Chairman Markey's Energy and Environment Subcommittee. The U.S. has to get its act together on electrification of transportation. Sounds like we're being lapped by other countries, and it will only get worse until we put an aggressive set of policies on the books. Keep up the good work!
  • Joe
    Ann, enjoyed your contribution yesterday on the panel at the Electric Car CleanTech conference. You're right... it will take a mass scale solution to make a difference. Niche plays are insufficient. That's why I'm not sanguine about this, for reasons cited in my post below.

    Keep up the good fight.
  • Joe
    Unfortunately, we're likely to follow, not lead.

    We've abdicated manufacturing capability to China and we're addicted to oil, both for the same reason -- we like things cheap. Forget about national strategy, development, sovereignty.... we like things cheap.

    Add to that a very contentious political process fueled by an ignorant electorate that will not be able to make the right decisions to parry with China's command and control policital system, or, say, Sweden's more ecologically literate population.

    Add to that a suffocating debt and deficit.

    Doesn't look good. And I wanna be wrong!
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