Will the U.S. lead or follow on the path to electrification?
Last week, Better Place delivered an important message to the U.S. Congress: vehicle electrification is inevitable around the world, and the opportunity to lead is here. To get ahead of this global transition and capture its massive economic potential, the U.S. must make electrification a top tier priority in its economic recovery and clean energy agenda.
Around the world, there is a growing tide of governments getting serious about going electric. Two examples are our recent progress in China and Japan. Other examples include France, China and Germany (among others), which have all made public-private partnership commitments to lead in mass-scale production and deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). The shift to electrification in these countries will happen in a disruptive way, and will reshuffle the deck on leadership in cars and energy. Whoever wins may win the century.
The primary motivation for each country may differ – from oil independence, to building globally dominant automotive industries, to integrating large amounts of renewable energy resources into the grid. But the conclusion is the same: electrification enables all of these benefits if it is done at scale; to do it at scale, government must adequately engage.
For the U.S., that means making a national commitment to electrification and the policy to support it on a mass scale. This starts with setting an explicit goal for the U.S. to become the global leader in the EV market, and backing it up with meaningful investment in regional EV ecosystems to enable consumer adoption. If this is done, the U.S. would create 2 million new and permanent jobs by 2030. (1)
While the U.S. is falling behind in the race, it can still turn around and lead this transition. In fact, it must do so to justify the $2B investment that the U.S. has already made in batteries alone through the stimulus package. According to Johnson Controls, if the U.S. doesn’t create a robust domestic market for EVs over the next five years, it will see excess battery manufacturing capacity of 62%.
In a world in which the global car park is forecast to double over the next 20 years, there is no reason the U.S. auto industry should fall behind or downsize. In fact, countries that lead this transition will be positioned for a lion’s share of the benefit.
For example, China has made electrification a national priority, setting an industrial policy to be the world’s #1 producer of EVs, starting with a 13-city demonstration. By using incentives to accelerate the domestic market for EV uptake, China has the potential not only to leapfrog the combustion engine at home, but also to position its automotive industry for global leadership.
If there are any doubts about China’s potential for winning this race, consider what is happening in other cleantech segments: China has grown its global market share in solar from 2% to 40%, while in the same timeframe the U.S. has moved from over 40% down to 16%. And in the last year, China’s investment in clean energy was nearly double that of the U.S., according to the Pew Charitable Trust, totaling $34.6B vs. $18.6B respectively.
So, while the U.S. stimulus package made an initial investment in battery technology and automotive retooling, during the same time much of the rest of the world began to move in a faster and more comprehensive way to lead in vehicle electrification.
We all know why it is imperative that the U.S. addresses its dependence on oil. The only question is – will the U.S. lead this transition or will it lag behind other countries in capitalizing on this opportunity?
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(1) Economic Impact of the Electrification Roadmap, Electrification Coalition

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